The Little Book That Beats the Market
Joel GreenblattSözler ve Alıntılar
1. Most people and businesses can’t find investments that will earn very high rates of return. A company that can earn a high return on capital is therefore very special.
2. Companies that earn a high return on capital may also have the opportunity to invest some or all of their profits at a high rate of return. This opportunity is very valuable. It can contribute to a high rate of earnings growth.
3. Companies that achieve a high return on capital are likely to have a special advantage of some kind. That special advantage keeps competitors from destroying the ability to earn above- average profits.
4. By eliminating companies that earn ordinary or poor returns on capital, the magic formula starts with a group of companies that have a high return on capital. It then tries to buy these above-average companies at below-average prices.
5. Since the magic formula makes overwhelming sense, we should be able to stick with it during good times and bad.
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After more than 25 years of investing professionally and after 9 years of teaching at an Ivy League business school, I am convinced of at least two things:
1. If you really want to “beat the market,” most professionals and academics can’t help you, and
2. That leaves only one real alternative: You must do it yourself.
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By eliminating companies that earn ordinary or poor returns on capital, the magic formula starts with a group of companies that have a high return on capital.
So, here’s what you need to know:
1. Buying a share in a business means you are purchasing a portion (or percentage interest) of that business. You are then entitled to a portion of that business’s future earnings.
2. Figuring out what a business is worth involves estimating (okay, guessing) how much the business will earn in the future.
3. The earnings from your share of the profits must give you more money than you would receive by placing that same amount of money in a risk-free 10-year U.S. government bond. (Remember: Last chapter we set 6 percent as your absolute minimum annual return when government bond rates fall below 6 percent)
4. No, I haven’t forgotten about the magic formula. But you’re going to have to stop bugging me about it, okay? Sheesh!
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In short, companies that achieve a high return on capital are likely to have a special advantage of some kind. That special advantage keeps competitors from destroying the ability to earn above-average profits.
The formula starts with a list of the largest 3,500 companies available for trading on one of the major U.S. stock exchanges.* It then assigns a rank to those companies, from 1 to 3,500, based on their return on capital. The company whose business had the highest return on capital would be assigned a rank of 1, and the company with the lowest return on capital (probably a company actually losing money) would receive a rank of 3,500. Similarly, the company that had the 232nd best return on capital would be assigned a rank of 232.
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That’s the point—you would rather have a higher earnings yield than a lower one; you would rather the business earn more relative to the price you are paying than less!
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