Serhan Calba: One of the worst tendencies of governments is to interpret their opponents’ intentions incorrectly and create the future that they sought to avoid. Capabilities do not always reflect intentions. And official statements today do not necessarily point to actions tomorrow. Or they might. It is easy to underestimate the danger a hostile government poses to your security, as most Europeans did when assessing Putin’s intentions towards Ukraine in 2021 or indeed Hitler’s in the 1930s. But we can just as easily overestimate a threat, as the George W. Bush administration did in the wake of the 9/11 attacks when it misread reports about Saddam Hussein’s links to Al Qaeda and his clandestine stocks of weapons of mass destruction. The result was a failed military intervention that greatly increased Iranian influence in the heart of the Middle East.

One of the worst tendencies of governments is to interpret their opponents’ intentions incorrectly and create the future that they sought to avoid. Capabilities do not always reflect intentions. And official statements today do not necessarily point to actions tomorrow. Or they might. It is easy to underestimate the danger a hostile government poses to your security, as most Europeans did when assessing Putin’s intentions towards Ukraine in 2021 or indeed Hitler’s in the 1930s. But we can just as easily overestimate a threat, as the George W. Bush administration did in the wake of the 9/11 attacks when it misread reports about Saddam Hussein’s links to Al Qaeda and his clandestine stocks of weapons of mass destruction. The result was a failed military intervention that greatly increased Iranian influence in the heart of the Middle East.

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The New Cold War Robin Niblett

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Serhan Calba