Trend Following Posts
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Basit ve kolay arasındaki ayrımı biliriz.
Basit ve sağlam çözümler bulmak , onları uygulayacak insan bulmaktan daha kolaydır.
Jason Russell
Sorunsuz bir yaşam hayal etmektense , var olan problemlerinizi çözün.
Edward de Bono
The vertical thinker says, “I know what I am looking for.” The lateral thinker says, “I am looking but I won’t know what I am looking for until I have found it.”
• It doesn’t matter what you think, it’s what the market does that matters.
• What matters can be measured, so keep refining your measurements.
• You don’t need to know when something will happen to know that it will.
• Successful trading is a probabilistic business, so plan accordingly.
• There is an edge to be gained in every aspect of your trading system.
• Everyone is fallible, even you, so your system must take this into account.
• Trading means losing as well as winning, something you must learn to live with.
Key Points
• Trend followers are right for the trend and wrong at each end. • Seykota: “A system should support and reflect the attitude of a trader.”
• Seykota: “There is no best system any more than there is a best car. There might however be a best car for you.”
• Seykota: “If you can’t afford to lose, you can’t afford to trade.”
• Money is only a means of keeping score.
• Taking losses should be easy. You should have them quantified before ever entering the market.
• Trust your trade. If you can’t trust it, don’t trade.
• The exact turning point, the top or bottom, can’t be known until it is over and a matter of record.
• After you take your signals and enter, trading becomes a waiting game.
• The more volatile the market, the less you risk. The less volatile the market, the more you risk.
Larry Hite
We approach markets backwards. The first thing we ask is not what can we make, but how much can we lose. We play a defensive game.
The time to think most clearly about why and when to exit is before getting in. In any trading system, the most important thing is to preserve your capital. A sell strategy gives the opportunity to not only preserve capital, but to also redeploy into more opportune markets. When do trend traders actually get out of a losing position? Fast! This is a fundamental element of trend following.
Bottom line, because trend followers never know which trend will be their big winner, they accumulate small losses trying to find it. It’s like sticking the toothpick in the cake to find out if it’s done. They are testing the market to find out if the little trend will grow into a big trend.