Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it. It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously, but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.
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If a satisfactory answer to a hard question is not found quickly, System 1 will find a related question that is easier and will answer it. I call the operation of answering one question in place of another substitution.
When asked "If Sam friendly?" different instances of Sam's behavior will come to mind than would if you had been asked "Is Sam unfriendly?"
People seek data that are likely to be compatible with the beliefs they currently hold.
Jumping to conclusions is efficient if the conclusions are likely to be correct and the cost of an occasional mistake accetable, and if the jump saves much time and effort. Jumping to conclusions is risky when the situation is unfamiliar, the stakes are high, and there is no time to collect more information.