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Climate change is a systemic problem that does not respect international boundaries and affects all countries in the world. It will require a system-level response to which all countries contribute. Given the collective benefits from action and the collective costs of inaction, as well as the interconnected nature of the necessary solutions, the response must be coordinated globally with the costs shared equitably. Equitably because the solutions should take into account the principle of ‘climate justice’. Those who have historically contributed the most to increased levels of carbon in the atmosphere should logically pay more of the cost, not least because they have become richer faster as a result of their actions.
China’s markets remain opaque; state-owned enterprises continue to dominate key sectors; they and their private sector counterparts receive subsidies and loans at preferential rates, and approval of foreign investment often requires the forced transfer of IP. Despite this, between 2010 and 2020, US companies invested £150 billion in China, principally in the information and technology, automotive, energy and retail sectors – nearly two-thirds of it in greenfield investment rather than acquisitions, in the hope of penetrating the massive Chinese market.
Donald Trump’s blunt use of US tariffs against China in 2017, and often bullying tactics to block European use of Chinese technologies, were some of the reasons behind calls for EU members to develop greater ‘strategic autonomy’ from the US. Many believed that by developing their own China strategy as part of this process, they would have greater agency in the contest with China than they did in the contest with the Soviet Union.7 They could also keep open avenues for cooperation on meeting global challenges of equal concern to Europe and China, such as combating climate change
After thirty or so years of globalization, however, the United States is divided into a country of winners and losers. Winners have prospered in global value-adding services like finance, law, consulting, marketing and design, and in high-technology sectors such as pharmaceuticals, aerospace and digital products and services, all of which tap into world markets and exploit US strengths in intellectual property. Losers are clustered in local services like hospitality and retail and in lower-value manufacturing sectors where a combination of automation and competition from cheaper, foreign labour hollowed out local industries and jobs. By 2015, only some 50 per cent of American thirty-year-olds were earning more than their parents in real terms.4 The country’s overall GDP may have continued to grow, but the rewards flowed mainly to those already at or near the top of the income ladder. Between 2001 and 2016, upper-income families added 33 per cent to their net wealth, whereas middle-income families saw their median net worth fall by 20 per cent and lower-income families by 45 per cent.5
Progress in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the major emitters has been uneven since 2015 and sets the scene for difficult negotiations ahead. China has become by far the largest emitter of carbon in the world, accounting for 29.2 per cent of total global GHGs in 2022, nearly three times the US at 11.2 per cent. Even considering the fairer measure of GHG emissions per capita, Chinese emissions have been on a rapid rise, exceeding those of the EU27 countries in 2019. At 11 tonnes of CO2 per capita in 2022, it is still well below the US level of 18 tonnes. However, the US level is falling (from 24 tonnes per capita in 2005), whereas China’s is still rising, if now modestly. And, significantly, China’s cumulative emissions since the industrial era in 1851 (14.2 per cent of the world total) were almost equal to the EU27’s (15.6 per cent) in 2021, making it the third largest cumulative contributor. India’s emissions per capita, in contrast, have risen only from 1.6 tonnes per capita in 1990 to 2.8 tonnes in 2022, and it has contributed just 4.6 per cent to the cumulative total so far.7
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