Öz
@unfitted
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Yüksek Lisans
57 okur puanı
Temmuz 2020 tarihinde katıldı
When action is needed, optimisim, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
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Intuition cannot be trusted in the absence of stable regularities in the environment.
It is wrong to blame anyone for failing to forecast accurately in an unpredictable world However, it seems fair to blame professionals for believing they can succeed in an impossible task.
Hindsight & Outcome Bias
We cannot suppress the powerful intuition that what makes sense in hindsight today was predictable yesterday.
Hindsight & Outcome Bias
The halo effect is so powerful that you probably find yourself resisting the idea that the same person and the same behaviors appear methodical when things are going well and rigid when things are going poorly.