following thirty years of US-led economic globalization and ten years with the added stimulus of massive Chinese investment in global commodity and infrastructure projects, the relative economic weight of the non-aligned countries is growing. The countries of Southeast Asia have been the main success story to date. But India’s share of the global economy is projected to grow rapidly in the coming decades, overtaking the EU in 2050 on its way to being the world’s second or third largest economy alongside the US and China later this century.2 The Gulf states are investing their wealth more strategically than in the past, turning this region into the main hub for trade involving emerging economies. There has been an important shift in patterns of world trade; so-called South–South trade expanded from 17 per cent of the total in 2005 to 28 per cent in 2021, partly on the back of the increasing importance of commodity exports to feed China’s growth.
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