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In the Dr. Evil game (adapted from Dan Egan), you imagine that Dr. Evil has a mind-control device that he’s using to get you to make decisions that guarantee failure. Dr. Evil, being an evil genius, knows he can’t make you fail unless he avoids detection. If you make obviously bad decisions, he’ll get caught. You and the people around you will notice that you’re making bad decisions and his evil plans will be thwarted. (...) One thing you should recognize from the Dr. Evil game is that the evil genius is you. The reasons that “Dr. Evil” comes up with are precisely the ways that you subtly sabotage yourself. Dr. Evil doesn’t get you with a guillotine blade chopping off your head. Instead, it’s a death by a thousand cuts. In any particular instance, your decision is easy to justify. He gives you a good reason to make a choice that causes you to lose a little bit on the path to reaching your goal. Then he piles up a lot of those decisions, killing your plans slowly, without allowing you to be aware that you are taking yourself down.
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Mental pain leads to real-world gains.
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When you have multiple options that are close in potential payoffs, these are sheep in wolf’s clothing decisions. Close calls for high-impact decisions tend to induce analysis paralysis, but the indecision is, in itself, a signal that you can go fast.
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Chasing certainty causes analysis paralysis.
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Smart people are also better at constructing convincing arguments that support their views and reinforce the things they believe to be true. Smart people are better at spinning narratives that convince other people that they are right, not in the service of misleading those people but in the service of keeping the fabric of their own identity from tearing.
The combination of motivated reasoning, the propensity to mislead yourself, and an overconfidence in intuition makes smart people less likely to seek feedback. When they do seek feedback, their ability to spin a persuasive narrative makes other people less likely to challenge them.
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Part of why it’s easier to see other people more objectively than you can see yourself is that you are motivated to protect your beliefs when it comes to reasoning about your own situation. Your beliefs form the fabric of your identity. Discovering that you’re wrong about something, questioning your beliefs, or admitting that some bad outcome was because of a bad decision you made and not just bad luck—these all have the potential to tear that fabric.
We are all motivated to keep that fabric intact. When it comes to your own reasoning, your beliefs end up in the driver’s seat steering you toward a narrative that protects your identity and self-narrative.
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