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Even with the best historical insights, one can't predict when a country will embrace democracy. It often depends on a complex mix of historical facts particular to each country. Why did Spain move to democracy only in 1977 and not earlier? Because its dictator-for-life, Franco, died two years earlier. Why Hungary in 1989? Because that year the Soviet Union stopped threatening it with a military invasion if it liberalized its politics. Why India in 1947? Because that's when Britain liquidated its empire on the subcontinent. And so on. The more interesting question, however, is what makes democracy endure. Political regimes change for varied reasons-war, economic crises, death. But when an autocratic regime does collapse and people try to establish a democracy, what makes it last? Historically, the best single answer to that question has been wealth.
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