En Beğenilen Range Gönderileri
En Beğenilen Range kitaplarını, en beğenilen Range sözleri ve alıntılarını, en beğenilen Range yazarlarını, en beğenilen Range yorumları ve incelemelerini 1000Kitap'ta bulabilirsiniz.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
rational observer, disaster becomes imminent. "The more we have in- vested and even lost," Konnikova wrote, "the longer we will persist in insisting it will all work out."
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Modern work de-mands knowledge transfer: the ability to apply knowledge to new situa- tions and different domains. Our most fundamental thought processes have changed to accommodate increasing complexity and the need to derive new patterns rather than rely only on familiar ones. Our concep- tual classification schemes provide a scaffolding for connecting knowl- edge, making it accessible and flexible.
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Seeing small pieces of a larger jigsaw puzzle in isolation, no matter how hi-def the picture, is insufficient to grapple with humanity's great- est challenges. We have long known the laws of thermodynamics, but struggle to predict the spread of a forest fire. We know how cells work, but can't predict the poetry that will be written by a human made up of them. The frog's-eye view of individual parts is not enough. A healthy ecosystem needs biodiversity.
Even now, even in endeavors that engender specialization unprece- dented in history, there are beacons of breadth. Individuals who live by historian Arnold Toynbee's words that "no tool is omnicompetent. There is no such thing as a master-key that will unlock all doors." Rather than wielding a single tool, they have managed to collect and protect an entire toolshed, and they show the power of range in a hyper- specialized world.
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Just as Tetlock says of the best forecasters, it is not what they think, but how they think. The best forecasters are high in active open-mindedness. They are also extremely curious, and don't merely consider contrary ideas, they proactively cross disciplines looking for them. "Depth can be inadequate without breadth," wrote Jonathan Baron, the psychologist who developed measurements of active open-mindedness.
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Short Term Planning
No one in their right mind would argue that passion and persever- ance are unimportant, or that a bad day is a cue to quit. But the idea that a change of interest, or a recalibration of focus, is an imperfection and competitive disadvantage leads to a simple, one-size-fits-all Tiger story: pick and stick, as soon as possible. Responding to lived experi- ence with a change of direction, like Van Gogh did habitually, like West Point graduates have been doing since the dawn of the knowledge econ- omy, is less tidy but no less important. It involves a particular behavior that improves your chances of finding the best match, but that at first blush sounds like a terrible life strategy: short-term planning
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